THE Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) has anticipated a growth of 2.57 percent in GDP in 2016, for Antigua & Barbuda. This places the twin-island state in fourth position for expected GDP growth rates for OECS islands.
Antigua & Barbuda is trailing behind Dominica with 3.88 per cent, St Kitts & Nevisā 3.59 per cent and Anguillaās 3.57 per cent, the report showed.
Grenada, Montserrat, St Lucia and St Vincent & the Grenadines are expected to fall behind of Antigua & Barbudaās GDP rate this year.
The ECCB has tracked a deceleration in the growth of the local economy since 2014, where the GDP growth rate was almost 5 per cent, to under 4 per cent in 2015 and under 3 per cent for the current year.
There are predictions, however, that suggest a growth to over 3 per cent in 2017 and 2018.
Antigua & Barbudaās economy experienced major decline in the GDP for 2009-2011 during the period of the worldwide recession before making a comeback in 2012.
Did the ECCB take into consideration the impact of the BREXIT vote? If not, then it would seem prudent to shave that growth rate in alignment with the IMF’s predictions. We do not have J. M. Keynes “animal spirits” as part of our domestic economic framework or economic model. We either import deflation or inflation depending on our international trade relationships.