The actual sophistry of Caribbean voters is often underestimated by traditional politicians only interested in their votes every five years, who forever see voters only as propellers to personal political power.
But every now and then, election results tell towering tales about how electors pay more attention now than ever, to not-only voting for parties they prefer, but also against those they feel no longer deserves remaining in government.
Most Caribbean Community (CARICOM) elections take place in two-party states with the British ‘Westminster’ model that dictates there must always be an Opposition presence in parliament.
This institutionalized division is best reflected in cases today (like in Grenada and Barbados) where one party wins all the seats, but one has to occupy the position of Leader of the Opposition.
Under Westminster, a party can win an election with less votes and elected parliamentarians can cross-the-floor without consulting or informing constituents.
National Elections are like electoral horse-races to the finishing line and the country remains politically split according to the results.
The fallacies of the two-party system have long been drawing attention from progressive and positively-thinking Caribbean politicians.
One was Saint Lucia’s legendary former Education Minister, Hunter J. Francois, who proposed ‘A No-party State’.
Efforts to reform national constitutions have failed, including a proposed hybrid of the Westminster and American systems.
But where such proposals may restrict elected parliamentarians on the winning side to caring for the constituents – and out of Cabinet – the recommendations can be outrightly rejected by both ruling and opposition parties in parliament.
Same with earlier efforts to introduce legislation to have Caribbean parties publicly declare financial contributions to their campaigns.
There’s been discussion too about making voting mandatory, supposedly to ensure more people exercise their franchise and participate in building democracy.
But here again, critics say it’ll force individuals to do something they personally decided not to, thus violating their rights.
Political discussions preceding Caribbean elections today are therefore deeper and wider than yesteryear, as more people better understand the inter-relationships between what happens elsewhere and how it affects them — and their pockets.
With General Elections due in Saint Lucia anytime between now and October 2026, the political debates and discussions are very-much-alive in the mainstream and social media, with assessments, predictions and suggestions by regular citizens dominating the talk shows and comments on ‘People Speak’ opinion platforms.
Most people asked which party they think is likely to win the next general elections respond that the ruling Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP) will be returned hands-down.
But some in the leadership of the opposition United Workers Party (UWP) insist they’ve seen and sensed ‘a swing’ in popular support in their favour that not-even their staunchest supporters have felt.
The underestimated maturity of the Saint Lucian electorate also came to fore in the results of polls seeking people’s views on when the next general elections should be called: most telling inquirers they feel the government should complete its five-year term — and then call elections within 90-days.
Here again, the opposition (and everyone else) is trying to read Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre’s mind, as only he can decide an election date, even if in consultation with colleagues.
But in the absence of a fixed election date, all he’s said is that while constitutionally he can announce a date with at least 21 days’ notice, he assured that his party ‘does not intend to go beyond our five-year term.’
The hapless and not-very-hopeful UWP’s leadership is still at bay, slowly selecting 15 new candidates needed for the 17-member parliament, engaging in house-to-house support surveys and keeping its fight up online.
But the party is swimming upstream to find arguments to attract support against perhaps Saint Lucia’s most popular government ever, acknowledged by opposition and independent voters alike.
With some in the UWP talking about its electability under its present Leaders (former Prime Minister Allen Chastanet and Deputy Leader Guy Joseph), fingers are being pointed in the direction of three other candidates, including two bankers and one former overseas representative of an international financial institution.
But there are also earlier challengers and others with eyes on the prize, resulting in Chastanet indicating he was not averse to being challenged for the top leadership position.
However, none of the names being mentioned as possible leadership candidates might be able or willing to mobilize the campaign funding support needed to pay outstanding headquarters and utility bill debts that Chastanet can muster – for a campaign to rebound from a humiliating 13-4 defeat five years earlier.
Besides, the SLP has enjoyed a 15-2 majority since August 2021, after two victorious independent (former UWP MPs, including a former prime minister) joined the SLP-led Cabinet.
The Saint Lucia Prime Minister rang what looked and sounded like an election bell several months ago in Dominica at a ruling Dominica Labour Party (DLP) rally also attended by host PM Roosevelt Skerrit and Grenada Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell.
But back home, self-acclaimed political pundits and forecasters are tying the election date to completion of major national projects on line for delivery this year, including the long-awaited St. Jude Hospital (destroyed by fire since 2012).
Of course, we’re talking about a country where an electorate voted to switch governments between the two major parties four consecutive times (2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021), returning each party with an 11-6 victory margin in the first three polls — and reducing the UWP to only two seats in the last.
Unlike in Trinidad & Tobago where the majority voted the government out in the April 28 General Elections, Saint Lucia seems set to change the one-term trend whenever the PM calls the elections.
But PM Pierre is also very-much-aware that no election is won until the last vote is counted; and he continues to appear fully-focused on continuing to deliver 2021 election promises in parliament every month, until he rings that bell!