Venezuelans opened 2025 with high hopes and expectations following the brightest Christmas holidays in living recent memory for many, breaking spending and e-commerce transaction records — and praying for a peaceful year after the swearing-in of President Nicolas Maduro on January 10.
Despite almost 1,000 US-led sanctions backed by the European Union (EU), the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has survived repeated imperial onslaughts since the 2018 presidential elections.
In a New Year address to the nation, President Maduro promised more will be done in 2025 and beyond with available resources – and better if sanctions are lifted.
He promised to deepen popular democracy through new elections to the National Assembly and national and community-based consultations on development projects planned for his next term.
Legislators also started their 2025-2026 term last weekend (January 4-5), early enough to certify Maduro’s victory as the candidate of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and invite him to officially take office on January 10.
Third New Term
Maduro’s third new term also starts with Venezuela registering as Latin America’s fastest-growing economy in 2024, for a second consecutive year.
The United Nations (UN) Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said Venezuela’s GDP grew by 6.2%.
Daniel Titelman, Director of ECLAC’s Economic Development Division, says the projected growth is based mainly on a 16% increase in Venezuela’s oil production — and the possibility that incoming US President Donald Trump could raise some related sanctions.
Media reports say Trump can ease the squeeze if Caracas agrees to receive thousands of Venezuelan migrants he intends to round up, encamp and deport, with military support, as soon as possible after he takes office on January 20.
Maduro has been quoted as saying Venezuelans returning home will be welcomed and expectations and hopes are high in Caracas that Trump will fulfil, in full, Washington’s side of the bargain.
Commonalities and Contrasts
As Venezuela and the US approach their respective January presidential inaugurations, the contrasts and commonalities are blinding:
• Maduro will take office on Friday (January 10) despite all externally-backed attempts to prevent his re-election, while Trump will take office on January 20, still in a quicksand of legal cases
• While Maduro takes his Oath of Office in Caracas on Friday, a US judge will sentence incoming President Donald Trump in his ‘hush money’ trial, in which a jury found him guilty as charged
• The judge on January 6 turned down a request by Trump’s lawyers for this case to be postponed, after ruling that “immunity does not extend to incoming presidents” and he’s said he plans to slap Trump on the wrist with a non-custodial sentence – which would make him the first US President to take office as a convicted felon
Interesting Events
Meanwhile, the roads to the inaugurations in Caracas and Washington are already dotted with interesting events:
• January 5 saw the suspense-filled re-election of Trump-nominee Mike Johnson as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, despite many fellow Republicans having second thoughts about trusting him for the job a second time
• January 5 also saw Venezuela’s National Assembly start its 2025-2026 session, with Jorge Rodriguez re-elected as President
• On January 5, international press reports indicated exiled opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia had flown from Spain to Argentina, with plans to also visit the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama and Uruguay, his eyes ultimately set on entering Venezuela for January 10
• In immediate response, Venezuela’s Attorney General issued a warrant for Gonzalez Urrutia’s arrest – with a US $100,000 bounty on his head — on charges temporarily shelved to facilitate his September asylum request
• Venezuela’s Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello assured citizens and overseas dignitaries on January 6 that the armed forces were being deployed to ensure no undue interference in Friday’s inauguration ceremony
• Also, on January 6, the US observed four years (to the day) since supporters of defeated President Trump assaulted The Capitol in Washington in 2021, in a bid to prevent President Joe Biden from being certified winner
• At Capitol Hill on January 6, outgoing US Vice President Kamala Harris (like ex-Vice President Mike Pence four years earlier) presided over the final recount of votes cast in the election her party lost — and to certify Trump’s victory
• Also, on January 6, Venezuela broke diplomatic relations with Paraguay, after that country’s president said he recognized Gonzalez Urrutia.
New Era?
Unless Trump invents ways to change the US Constitution to abolish the two-term limit, this will be his last term — during which he’ll surely want to shape a legacy brighter than his first term and much-better than outgoing president Joe Biden’s.
Regaining US access to Venezuelan oil will be a large feather in Trump’s second presidential hat, even though Caracas may not agree to terms that will return to the past (when Caracas was subjected to undue US pressures following the nationalization of some US oil assets by President Chavez).
Venezuela has been increasing oil production and exports since last year and badly needs the US sanctions lifted earliest in 2025.
If Trump wants, Caracas and Washington can easily find common ground in shared mutual interests and create a win-win situation for both nations.
The ‘transactional president’ may also decide to negotiate an early deal for resuming the flow of Venezuelan oil to the USA, which Biden failed to achieve after playing cat-and-mouse with Caracas for something the US badly needs — and wants quickly.
Engineering the Future
Anything can happen, but whichever way the wind blows after January 10 and 20 in Caracas and Washington, Venezuela will continue engineering the new economy that’ll depend much less on energy exports and much more on the 18 new ‘engines of growth’ developed during Maduro’s last term.
Sanctions or not, Venezuela will remain home to the largest certified oil and gas reserves worldwide and 94% of Latin America’s energy reserves.
Leading Spanish-speaking America’s GDP growth by 4.0% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024, respectively, Venezuela today again outranks expectations for other Latin American states, like: Brazil (3.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025), Mexico (1.4% and 1.2%), Chile (2.3% and 2.2%), Colombia (1.8% and 2.6%) and Peru (3.1% and 2.7%).
On the other hand, Argentina leads the growth race downhill under far-right President Javier Milei, with an expected contraction of Mminus-3.2%.
Access to Venezuelan oil and gas supplies will help Trump build political capital and fill the vacuum in US and EU energy supplies that continue to deepen thanks to the Ukraine war and sabotage of cheaper gas deliveries from Russia through Germany and Ukraine, even as Moscow continues selling oil and gas profitably on the world market.
Much depends on whether Trump is ready to dance with Caracas on the trade and diplomatic front, but while hoping for the best Venezuela — given Trump’s predictable unpredictability — will also have to plan for the worse.
In any case, the bottom line is: The world is ready to live with Maduro and if President Trump wishes to bring fresh new light to the age-old diplomatic ties between Caracas and Washington, 2025 can be the start of another very new era in US-Venezuela relations, after January 10 and 20.