June 1st marks the start of the 2024 hurricane season for the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Major hurricane season forecasting agencies such as the Colorado State University, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk and the UK Met Office have all predicted an extremely active, above normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season.
– The Colorado State University team in their latest forecast released on 04 April 2024, predict the formation of 23 named storms, of which 11 will develop into hurricanes with 5 attaining major hurricane status.
– The NOAA Climate Prediction Center scientists in their forecast released on 23 May 2024, predict an 85 percent probability of above normal cyclone activity this year. They have forecasted the formation of 17-25 named storms of which 8-13 could become hurricanes including four to seven 4-7 major hurricanes.
– The Tropical Storm Risk team on May 30 2024 predicted a season with the formation of 24 named storms, of which 12 will develop into hurricanes with 6 attaining major hurricane status.
– The UK Met Office in their forecast released on May 22, 2024 predicted 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
An average season, based on data from 1991 to 2020, will produce 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and three 3 major hurricanes.
Pre-season rainfall over Saint Lucia this year has generally been below average but the seasonal precipitation outlook for June to November is for the likelihood for rainfall to be above normal. Heavy rainfall events that could trigger flash flooding and landslides remain a major concern this year. Brush fires during this dry season have destroyed some of the protective canopy on slopes in certain areas, thereby increasing the risk of soil erosion and landslides.
This year near-record heat which may have implications for public health and well-being is also forecasted for the period June to November.
The Saint Lucia Met Services advises all Saint Lucian residents and interests in our region, to exercise due diligence in their planning and preparation for the hurricane season. We encourage you to consistently follow regional weather developments and to pay particular attention to local weather reports, advisories and bulletins issued by the Saint Lucia Meteorological Services. The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) will also be issuing important instructions and information which you are strongly advised to follow.
The Saint Lucia Meteorological Services will as usual be utilizing all available communication channels and facilities, including local news and social media, to transmit timely information to the Saint Lucian populace and other interested parties.
The hurricane season ends on 30 November 2024.