“A week is a long time in politics.” The quote is attributed to Harold Wilson, a former Prime Minister of Britain. Mindful of PM Wilson’s assertion, it is indeed a challenge to forecast with any precision results of elections that may be months away. The main reason for this, is that the human mind is subject to change, consistent with the changing environment in which it exists.
This is why the following discussion is primarily focused on conditions now and related antecedents. As of now, the basic result of the next general elections can be comfortably predicted in favour of the incumbent Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP), led by Philip J Pierre. The factors most likely to produce this basic result are (1) performance of the government; (2) the ineffectiveness of the Opposition (it can’t seem to create a momentum for change); and (3) the electoral matrix, meaning historical voting patterns by constituency. Numbers one and two are so obvious in the prevailing circumstances. The government has been positively touching lives across the social spectrum, or at the very least, demonstrating sincerity of intention to better the lives and livelihoods of all citizens, especially those with some catching up to do on the ladder of economic and social success.
Leaders and supporters of the UWP continue to cling onto the self-defeating cliché, ‘they en do notting’, despite the fact that the government can present more than 50 accomplishments, which are positively impacting citizens across all sectors, since its election victory of July 2021.
The SLP Administration has so far lived up to the instruction in the book of Titus (Ch. 2:7) “Show yourself in all respects to be a model of good works, and in your teaching show integrity, dignity.”
Legacy and social media are awash with evidence-based deliverables by the SLP Government, so let’s reserve space for the third, and most sensitive, factor likely to affect a comfortable election result for the SLP, i.e., the electoral matrix – voting patterns by constituency, and propensity to affect the status quo. There have been pendulum swings since the advent of Kenny D Anthony in 1997, with upsets favourable to the SLP in Babonneau, Castries Central, Castries East, Castries South East, Micoud North and Micoud South. For 33 years between 1964 and 1992, these six constituencies were UWP fortresses. For the sake of this commentary, the SLP’s landslide result (12-5 seats) of 1979 is treated as an aberration, after the new government turned on itself and was decimated at the polls two-and-a-half years later. Thus, the SLP returned to the political wilderness from 1982 to 1997.
Since then, the SLP has been elected four times, but has also kept a rock-solid six seats in opposition since 2006. Even on occasions when the swing factor favoured the UWP, the SLP has consistently maintained dominance in Castries East, Castries South, Dennery North, Vieux Fort North, Vieux Fort South and Laborie. This was key to the SLP’s landslide in 2021 when, one can say, the Party started with 6 assured seats. Therefore, SLP’s chances of winning and winning big in 2021 loomed large, considering Allen Chastanet’s leadership failures and his inability to deliver on big promises – completion of St Jude Hospital, national health insurance, creation of French market for bananas, etc, etc.
A party or political group needs to win nine seats to get over the line in the election race here to form a government. The swing factor was so pronounced in 2021 that the SLP was able to conquer, for the first time, what seemed to be the UWP’s electoral Fort Knox, Micoud North (stronghold of co-founder and six-time Prime Minister, John Compton). It does not appear, as of now, that Jeremiah Norbert is in danger of losing this prized seat to his cousin, Elisha Norbert, whose willful defiance of staff orders pertaining to active participation of public servants in partisan politics is not projecting him as ‘the rebel against the system’ that he Intended. His lack of appeal makes the ground more favourable for Jeremiah, who has some constituency achievements on which to campaign. This increases the SLP’s first take on seats to eight.
So if eight of the 13 SLP incumbent seats seem very winnerable at this point in time, which one of the Party’s remaining six is more likely to take it over the line?
All eyes are on Gros Islet, where a youthful Kenson Casimir registered an emphatic victory for the SLP over the UWP’s battle-hardened Lennard Montoute.
In the prevailing social and economic atmosphere, the SLP should get nine seats comfortably.
Let’s remind ourselves that Castries North and Castries Central seats are being held by ‘independents’ (slanting towards SLP). If the relationship with the SLP remains chummy as it is, they represent the Party’s insurance policy, for a return to government, especially if the seat tally is tied at SLP 8, UWP 7 and Independents 2. Let’s leave that on the shelf for now, not because of any uncertainty of the re-election of Independents, Stephenson King and Richard Frederick. In substance, they are currently essential parts of the Philip J Pierre Administration, working seamlessly with their SLP colleagues in the Cabinet. King and Frederick have over time worked their way to being formidable political figures with a decisive electoral following, proof of this being very evident in 2021 when they contested – and won – as independent candidates. King’s triumph was exceptional because he fell out with the UWP at the eleventh hour, contested as an Independent under a different party symbol and colour, and still trounced his replacement candidate on the UWP ticket by a large margin.
The SLP is fielding new candidates in Castries South East, Micoud South. There is also a change of candidate in Vieux Fort South, succeeding former three-time Prime Minister and six-term MP, Kenny Anthony. With Anthony’s tremendous backing and influence in that constituency, the newcomer, Danny Butcher, has a fighting chance.
Soufriere, Gros Islet, Anse-la-Raye and Babonneau have changed hands often since the national political ground shifted in 1997, but the performance record of the respective candidates in their constituencies and ministries, bolstered by the important factor of the leadership of the government and Party will be crucial for a comfortable SLP victory. Calypsonian TC Brown expressed it beautifully in his 2025 tune ‘My Choice’:
“General elections is a clash of party leaders, whose main intention is to control the public coffers our choice is clear on election day it’s Philip J Pierre versus Allen Castanet.”
If leadership emerges as the single most important factor in the next elections, then the SLP/Philip J Pierre should ride on the proclamation in Matthew 25:21, “Well done, thou good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things; enter thou into the joy of thy Lord.”