THERE was a time not too long ago when the European continent was acclaimed as the gold standard for liberal democracy and political pragmatism. The progressive social culture was welcoming and economic globalization seemed to have found a permanent home within the region’s borders.
Moreover, the European Union was hailed as the greatest post-war peace project ever pursued. Besides America, a successful Europe was supposed to be the great political and economic hope for the 21st century. How times have changed!
Now political and economic irrationality is the order of the day. Euroskepticism has found loud expression among the continent’s citizens.
Europe has become frighteningly illiberal and has been transformed to the point of being unrecognizable. Where meritocracy, devotion to human rights and an open societal culture once ruled, islamophobia, nationalism and nativism are now rapidly becoming enduring social and political norms.
No doubt, terrorism and Islamic radicalization has made life difficult for migrants and refugees. Still Europe is reclining both socially and politically, and economic logic has become impotent in the face of political power.
If there was any doubt that the ballot paper could be more dangerous than a thousand bayonets, the Brexit vote has dispelled it. An American commentator captured the significance of the British decision to withdraw from the EU when he wrote: “The vote is a venom-packed slap to liberalism, and as such reflects the rise of nationalism and right-wing parties and interests in many other countries, the US included. The shared motors in all this: immigration, economic hardship, political disillusion, a mistrust of those in power, the threat of terrorism, and anti-Muslim sentiment. A toxic cocktail for sure, ripe for canny right-wing operators to manipulate into a lot of voter fear.”
When Michael Gove, the former British Education and Justice Minister, described the 28-country bloc as a “job-destroying, misery-inducing, unemployment-creating tragedy”, his was by no means a lonely voice in the European wilderness. The inexorable rise of far-right parties in Austria, Germany, Hungary, France and the Netherlands demonstrate the increasing frustration of voters with the present democratic and leadership structures within the European Union. Marine Le Pen has stated repeatedly that “Brussels is like an ulcer bleeding France dry.”
She believes nothing justifies the EU’s continued existence and has pledged to withdraw France’s membership should she become president. She recently stated that her goal would be to “immediately go to the European institutions and demand the return of France’s sovereignty. I want control back over our currency and our borders.”
As much as I believe such views are imprudent and ill-conceived, the bitter truth is that the European Union, as currently constituted, seems unable to inspire its citizens.
In any event, gruelling years lie ahead for the European Union. Since the Brexit vote, the relationship between Britain and Europe faces a new ice age. When David Cameron first spoke to Angela Merkel about how Britain saw the future of the EU, she jokingly replied: “Those who have visions should go to the eye doctor.”
How we all wished that it had all remained a vision instead of the political nightmare that it has become. For decades, the British have demonstrated sheer antipathy towards the EU’s creeping federalism through its idea of “ever closer union”, and have never missed the opportunity to express resentment at the manner in which its supra-governmental institutions have been bureaucratized and governed. As the Brexit horror unfolds, uncertainty and confusion abound in European institutions, capital markets, financial institutions and export businesses.
The 2009 sovereign debt crisis shook the euro to its foundations, transforming the problem from an acute to a chronic one. Massive capital flows across borders encouraged high levels of public and private borrowing which almost throttle several economies in the eurozone. The global financial crisis further complicated the currency problem resulting in bankruptcies, bank failures and a debilitating recession which led to explosive growth in debt burdens. As George Soros likes to remind us, Europe still faces economic and financial collapse as Greece’s problem is still Europe’s problem. In much of Southern Europe, feelings of discontent and distrust still linger in the face of high unemployment and hopelessness, just as effigies of Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor, continue to be torched and newspapers show modern German officials in Hitler-era garb.
And then there is Italy and Portugal whose fiscal issues remain largely unresolved. It appears what Europe has essentially managed to do is to kick the can down the road.
As a consequence of the Brexit vote, attention in the EU is likely to shift to internal debates on the future of European integration. There are fears that the EU’s appetite for enlargement may be receding into the far distance. The political commentator Sarah Wohlfeld of Spiegel magazine believes that Europe will increasingly become self-indulgent and that democracy, peace and political co-operation in the entire region could experience dangerous setbacks.
“Now, quite apart from the referendum’s concrete results, the EU will be more preoccupied with itself than ever. Its order of business is going to be determined by withdrawal negotiations with Britain, by the accompanying debates over whether there should be more Europe or less Europe, by Scotland’s potential independence and by right-wing populist parties calling for further referendums. The EU is going to be busy defending the European project and salvaging its achievements. Under these circumstances it is difficult to picture either governments of member states or their citizens showing exuberance for rapidly expanding the EU, particularly since the Western Balkans are economically weak and haunted by bilateral conflicts that are still unresolved. The EU will need to get its own house in order before taking on more problems,” she writes.
Meanwhile Turkey (a candidate country for EU membership) is on the verge of imploding after a failed coup attempt, and relations between Russia and NATO are deteriorating. The political carnage taking place in Turkey threatens to create further political instability and economic uncertainty in the region. There is little doubt that in regional crises, the EU needs Turkey’s co-operation, just as it needs Russia’s on issues of terrorism, regional security and financial propriety.
In the final analysis, let’s hope that the unfortunate Brexit decision (which threatens to transmogrify the face of Europe) does a little good at least by igniting a long-ignored discussion on EU political and institutional reforms. Europe needs to change, but that change must not come at the expense of diversity, equity, religious freedom and economic mobility.
For comments, write to [email protected] – Clement Wulf-Soulage is a Management Economist, Published Author and Former University Lecturer.